Get ready to discover the best strategies on how to invest in a bear market in 2020 / 2021.
I believe that there will be a recession in 2021.
Can I tell the future? Definitely not.
The President of the United States has indicated that he uses the stock market as a measure of economic health.
President Trump also appears to influence the stock market with his Tweets, comments about the Federal Reserve and the Trade War with China.
As a result, I believe that Trump will do everything possible to bolster the stock market so that he's re-elected.
Once he's re-elected, all bets are off.
So 2021 is the year that I believe the market will experience a significant recession.
Are you an options trader who is afraid to trade in a bear market?
Do you want to learn bear market investing strategies and earn money in both bull and bear markets?
Do you want to know the Top 7 recession-proof stocks you can invest in today?
This blog post is full of information on how to invest in a bear market including tips on what you should do (and not do) to trade profitably in 2020 & 2021 with options trading.
How to Invest in a Bear Market : Strategies
Step-by-Step Guide: How to Invest in a Bear Market
In the video (below), I explain these steps further and I also give concrete examples.
This is your ultimate guide for options trading.
I will teach you step-by-step how to trade and make money even when we're in a bear market / recession.
Before anything else, you need to believe that selling option premium gives you the best possibility of profiting during a recession.
Like I always say, I don't believe that day traders make money in real life.
According to this day trading study, only 1,000 in 360,000 day traders are consistently profitable; with the average day trader losing 15% a year.
Only 0.28% of day traders in the study are consistently profitable; and the top 500 (out of 360,000) best performing traders earned an average of only ~5% over holding an SPY index.
Another recent study, from Brazil, concluded that 99.8% of day traders lose money and the 0.2% that made money earn less than minimum wage.
To summarize: You can earn better returns than the best day traders by simply holding the SPY index and selling covered calls.
Overall, the best way for retail traders to make money in the stock market is by selling option premium.
By doing this, you should be able to earn about 35% - 45% a year.
Here are the steps you should take to maximize your profits:
Step 1: Create a Watch List with "Recession-Proof" Stocks
The first thing you need is a watch list of stocks. I've picked out a few below, which I believe are relatively recession-proof stocks.
You will also notice that there are many different sectors represented.
Investing during a bear market requires uncorrelated stocks that are relatively stable.
We have five sectors in all, that is a good diversification.
Step 2: Focus Only on Your Watch List when Investing During a Bear Market
The next step on how to invest in a bear market is very simple - ignore other stocks and focus only on your watch list.
If Tesla falls $50 and you feel a desire to sell a put, don't give in to this temptation.
Just ignore it.
Focus only on the stocks in your watch list.
In the video, you will notice how I rattled off the current prices of the seven securities easily.
If you focus on your watch list every single day, you will get familiar with each stock's trading ranges.
Don't distract yourself with other competing information - just ignore everything else.
"If you focus on your watch list every single day, you will get familiar with each stock's trading range."
Step 3: Be Patient & Disciplined When Investing in a Bear Market
During a bear market, the selloffs tend to be extremely violent.
As a result, we tend to trade later in the day while also reducing the number of trades that we make.
Again...trade LATER in the day and be extra selective about entering new trades.
When Tastytrade tells you to "trade small, trade often", they're leading you down a path of stress and trading losses. Trading often is a recipe for disaster.
Successful trading does not mean sitting behind 10 computer monitors and constantly monitoring the market.
Consistently profitable traders are disciplined and choose their opening trades very carefully.
During a bear market, successful traders will wait for an underlying to ascend to the top of its trading range, and then they will sell calls to fade the move.
They will only sell puts if the market is extremely oversold.
And... if they sell puts, they will sell wide credit spreads.
I apply this options trading strategy to all of the securities on my watch list.
Remember, during a recession or bear market, prices are very volatile and you must be very patient when entering positions (especially on the put side).
If you make ~1 opening trade a week, that should be sufficient. And... it's best to wait for the market to stabilize. You don't want to open trades (especially naked puts) during violent bear or bull moves.
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Why I Don't Sell Strangles as an Options Trading Strategy
I am not a big fan of selling strangles.
While strangles are capital efficient, it's important to remember that when trading strangles:
When you sell a put, it is NOT a good time to sell a call.
If Lockheed Martin fell from $375 to a current price $350, and you sell a $320 naked put, then you may be tempted to sell a call option and turn this trade into a strangle.
You might be tempted to sell a $385 naked call option...but this trade is very risky.
Remember that Lockheed Martin already is trading at a depressed price so you will not collect much premium for selling a $385 naked call even if it has high Implied Volatility.
This is why I don't recommend selling strangles - because anytime you sell a put, it's inherently a bad time to sell a call.
It's better to be patient and sell a put option or call option opportunistically, instead of forcing trades.
Again, do not force trades. Always be disciplined and patient.
Selling Verticals and Spreads during a Bear Market
In general, I believe it's best to sell spreads when the VIX is below 20 to protect against large volatility expansions.
In late 2018, I sold a lot of vertical credit spreads because I wanted to protect myself against the large standard deviation moves in the stock market during that time period.
In October and early November of 2018, I sold vertical credit spreads to protect myself against large increases in volatility.
As an option trader, we get hurt when a stock violently moves ~2-3 standard deviations.
December 2018 was the worst December in ~85 years. The VIX (measure of volatility) increased by 2.5x and hit a high of around 36.
In 2017, the VIX averaged ~13 and there was barely any volatility; but in 2018, volatile markets were common.
In a volatile market, or when trading / investing in a bear market guide, I recommend that you protect yourself with some portfolio insurance.
As a result, you may want to sell verticals as opposed to naked options during a bear market to protect yourself against large increases in volatility.
Sell verticals to protect yourself against large spikes in volatility.
Key Points: How to Trade During a Recession Summary
Step 4: Close Out Your Trades Early
This step is extremely important if you want to make money and learn how to invest in a bear market.
You need to close out your trades & positions early.
Closing out your trades early is difficult for many people because they feel like they're leaving money on the table.
Even so, it's important to create the habit of closing out your positions early because it removes risk and allows you to redeploy capital to new trades.
Closing out trades early is active investing. You are able to close out the trade at your terms while reducing the risk of an outlier move.
Naked options should be bought back at a 50% or 60% profit relative to the premium received.
Spreads should be bought back at 50%.
It's also important to get into the habit of evaluating every position that you have and asking yourself:
"Would I make this trade right now?"
If the answer is "no", close out the position or manage / roll it.
I cover this topic extensively in my Best Options Trading course. If you want to learn everything that you need to trade options profitably, you can enroll and become a student.
"In a stagnant market, you should sell both puts and calls. In a bear market, focus on selling calls." - David Jaffee, BestStockStrategy.com
Bonus Tip 1: Build Good Habits
It definitely hurts to close out a position by making an unnecessary adjustment.
I remember a situation where I closed out a $430 strike call for BlackRock when the stock was trading around $422.
I paid $170 dollars to close out the position, only to watch BlackRock fall to $410.
I thought, "I just threw away $170 dollars when I shouldn't have touched that position at all."
But, the reality is that I made a good decision because I was building & practicing good habits.
When deciding whether to close out BlackRock, I had no idea what might happen the next day and I made the right decision to reduce risk based upon the available information I had at that moment.
Perhaps 40% of the time, BlackRock would have increased and challenged my $430 call.
I did not want to deal with that stress and it was better to reduce risk and close out the trade.
Bonus Tip 2: Keep ~40% of your Account as Available Buying Power
Make sure to trade small and always leave a minimum of ~40% of your account as available buying power (targeting 45% is even better).
If you have a $50,000 account, you should always have at least $20,000 available to trade.
You can also target 45%, which would mean you'd have $22,500 available to trade.
When trading verticals, do not be tempted to increase your size and trade too many contracts just because credit spreads are more capital efficient and do not reduce buying power nearly as much as naked options.
Remember that when trading vertical credit spreads, it's more difficult to roll and manage those positions.
I've seen many people trade 30 spreads when they would only be able to trade 2 naked options.
If the trade goes against them, they are forced to close out the position at a large loss.
The best advice I can provide you is to be extremely careful with your size and the number of contracts that you sell so that you establish good habits.
Conclusion: How to Invest During a Bear Market & How to Trade in a Recession
Even if I instilled you with all of my knowledge, you'd still need experience.
You have to practice and build positive habits.
It's important to not be greedy and not trade too many contracts.
Also, while you can read all the articles you want on SeekingAlpha.com and other websites. You will still need first-hand experience and the commitment to constantly improve.
I would not recommend trying to do everything yourself.
If you choose to do everything yourself, be ready to waste time, make more mistakes and cost yourself a lot of money.
I work hard to ensure that my students in the Options Trading Education Course and the Live Trade Alerts build up excellent long-term habits.
If you want to be a profitable trade, find a mentor who can help you achieve your goals and stop trying to do everything yourself.
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